FCIJ Business Confidence Survey of Spring 2018

THE RESULTS AND THE REPORT
The healthy growth forecasted for the Japanese economy that started in the Fall 2016 survey, continued in this survey albeit at a slightly lower level than in the previous survey conducted in October 2017. But the respondents remain positive about the Japanese economy, for the next 6 months the index, on a scale from +2 (strong improvement) to -2 (strong decline) – was now +0.61, compared to +0.67 in October. Looking 12 months ahead, the respondents see a further improvement in the economy but slightly than forecasted in the previous survey. The index was now +0.63, compared to +0.73 in the previous survey.

The positive views on the economy was also reflected in the performance of the companies. The index for reported sales performance in the past six months was now +0.86, the highest reported since Spring 2006, compared to +0.77 the previous survey. Also the profitability growth increased slightly, now +0.65 now compared to +0.61 in October.

In the sales forecast for the coming six months the respondents were also more optimistic than in October, the index was now +0.96, the highest index since Fall 2006 (previous survey +0.93). The forecast for profitability fell marginally from the October survey, from +0.78 to +0.74.

The optimism reflected in the company performance data also clearly show that the strategies of the foreign-affiliated companies in Japan continue to be bullish. 77% (81% in the October survey) are looking for further growth and 22 % are expecting to sustain their current level. Only one of the respondents is planning to downsize and also only one respondent is considering withdrawing from Japan.

This time the survey included two alternating questions. For the European Chamber members the questions were regarding the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. As for how the agreement would affect their business, 9% reported strong positive, 42% some positive and 47% expected it not to affect. 3 respondents expected some of strong negative influence.

For others than the Europeans one question was on the effect of possible increase in interest rates on the respondents’ business. 26% was negative, 15% positive (mainly financial sector) and 47% reported that it would not affect. The second question was regarding President Trump’s announced trade policy measures and the influence on businesses would they be implemented. An overwhelming majority, 83%, expected a negative effect.

Also this time we had an open question regarding the biggest challenges in the Japanese market. The by far the most cited challenge was labor issues, mainly hiring, and retaining good, bi-lingual staff.

FCIJについて
FCIJでは、各在日商工会議所と日本でアクティブなビジネスグループがともに、情報共有と関係強化を目的として活動しています。

企業マインドに関する調査が2002年4月に初めて行われて以来、年に2回実施され、日本の経済状況や販売実績などを分析しています。

今回の調査では、17の在日商工会議所から172件の回答を得て、結果として指標上では過去半年の販売実績が+0.86、今後6か月の売上予想が+0.96と判明しました。

これは調査に回答した99％が「日本での今後のビジネス拡大を予想している（77%）」もしくは「現状を維持していきたい（22%）」を選択したことが反映されていると考えられ、日本でビジネスをする際の課題等の解決に一層の注目が集まる結果となりました。

THE REPORT
 FCIJ Business Confidence Survey Report – Spring 2018

Download all comments from respondents:

Comments to Reasons for Changes in Business Performance

Comments to Strategies in Japan

Comments on how the EU-Japan EPA will affect your business?

Biggest challenge/hurdle in Japan

General Comments

NEXT SURVEY
The next survey will be conducted in October 2018. The results from that survey will be published early November 2018.

FURTHER INFORMATION
If you need more information regarding the survey, contact your chamber or the FCCJ Office.
Printed versions of the report are also available at the FCCJ Office for a modest fee.